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For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to take a firm approach regarding Ukraine. After delivering threats of "serious consequences" last August if Russia's president carried on blocking ceasefire discussions, he finally imposed major restrictions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously affected Putin's capability to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, with his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for the conflict, reportedly developed by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or European involvement, Trump has seemingly returned to his pro-Putin stance.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's plan would essentially benefit the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democracy in danger. Despite bold declarations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", much of the plan in reality weaken that very autonomy. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate experience, the former president persists to treat the war as a simple border issue, as if handing Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will please the leader. But, Putin's war is not simply about controlling a destroyed area of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and Putin's obvious desire to destroy it so it stops serves as an enticing example for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that his increasing autocracy denies them.

Land Concessions

While maintaining in position the currently split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the proposal would compel Ukraine to surrender the entire this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a lengthy period of warfare, this giveaway would render Ukraine's military defenses dangerously compromised.

The area is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the fortified military defenses that represent a critical barrier to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed path to the capital in case he subsequently opt to renew the conflict.

Defense Limitations

Then, in a step that would facilitate renewed fighting easier for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to reduce the size of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's plan imposes no similar limits on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's campaign to depict Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as Nazis, Trump's plan declares: "Every extremist doctrine and practices must be opposed and prohibited." As if to highlight this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump places no condition that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Admittedly, the plan includes Russia commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". But considering that the Russian leadership has breached comparable agreements in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to honor the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a truce and a handback of seized territory in the region to Ukrainian control – how should anyone have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on external protection assurances. While the initiative threatens a "decisive joint armed reaction" in case the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars include vague to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also preclude alliance nations from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Russia from replenishing his weakened military, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

A separate parallel deal apparently would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any future "major, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. But unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best deterrent against future invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would depend on the willingness of Western powers, such as Trump, to react militarily to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not