Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
