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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also see the Aussie side host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the 90s. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Squad Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling unit. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test side being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a far greater shift with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what new injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in series and a history of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the visiting team. You can sense that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and the English team ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.