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In the course of the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán stood out as the exclusive head of an EU nation to endorse the Republican candidate. This support was hardly surprising, in light of the Hungarian leader's embrace of divisive theories such as population replacement concept and the suppression of media freedom. Analysts point out that Hungary's premier more or less pioneered the Maga movement, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon once praising Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance Before the Hungarian Vote

In recent days, amid key votes in Hungary merely half a year off, the American leader reciprocated with support. With Orbán pursues a fifth straight win leading a nation he labels an illiberal democracy, his Fidesz party is behind in surveys. An official trip to the US capital produced not just Trump campaign souvenirs; it brought considerably more valuable electoral advantages.

Special Treatment and Fiscal Safeguards

Although before admonishing European nations on the imperative to stop all fuel purchases from Russia, and threatening penalties against countries still to purchase Russian crude, Donald Trump approved to grant a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. According to Mr Orbán, the Trump administration also promised to offer a economic protection to Budapest if it encounters any upcoming challenges, given that the European Union persists in holding back large sums from the EU to Hungary on grounds of failures to uphold the rule of law.

The details of this arrangement seem somewhat murky. But the US president has shown his readiness to assist political friends when the US granted a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, Javier Milei. While Orbán failed to obtain a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Washington talks still proved a productive session.

European Apprehensions and International Implications

Within EU circles, Mr Trump’s intervention will have further underlined the geopolitical stakes of the upcoming vote, before which the opposition candidate, the rival candidate, holds a comfortable lead in opinion data. Heads of state know not to anticipate principled consistency from the Trump administration, and have grown used to the Trump's attempts to undermine the bloc. Yet Mr Orbán’s exemption – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase American energy resources – openly contradicts the bloc's aims to end Russian oil and gas by 2027.

• Since 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian petroleum, Hungary and Slovakia, have provided well over £10bn to the Moscow's war operations.
• Meanwhile, Hungary has consistently deployed the veto power to impede moves in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• While Europe works to create a coordinated approach for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the negotiating table is still a key barrier.

Rival's Approach

The opposition candidate has avoided vowing a major policy shift on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on domestic issues, while emphasizing the need for Hungary to finally behave as a productive EU partner. Following so many years of trolling, EU officials can only wait and hope. Orbán's disregard to basic EU values, such as the upholding of minority rights and the independence of civil society institutions, has persisted as a deeply troubling issue for the European Union. His continued obstructionism toward the Ukraine issue risks undermining its long-term safety.