A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
